Arbitrage Betting Strategy: How to Place Both Legs Safely
- Place the leg most likely to move or be limited first, usually the outlier price.
- Follow with the second leg within seconds, because waiting minutes adds price-move risk.
- After rounding, multiply each stake by its odds and confirm every return beats your total outlay.
- Recalculate whenever a price moves or a stake is only partly accepted, and decide your loss floor in advance.
- Read each bookmaker's settlement rules before betting and re-hedge quickly if a leg is voided before the event.
A good arbitrage betting strategy is less about finding locks and more about placing every leg cleanly once you've found one. A lock only locks in a return at the prices shown. That return lasts only while those prices hold, your stakes are accepted in full and nothing gets voided. This guide covers the execution side. You'll learn which leg to place first and why speed matters more than looking 'natural'. You'll also see how to round stakes without tipping an outcome into a loss and what to do when a price moves or a bet is cancelled. There's a worked example with real-looking odds and a checklist you can save as a PDF. All examples use pre-match markets at licensed Australian bookmakers.
What does an arbitrage betting strategy look like in practice?
Most guides explain how to find a lock. Fewer explain how to place it. An arbitrage betting strategy is really two jobs. First, you spot a set of prices whose implied probabilities add up to less than 100%. Then you get every leg on at those prices before anything changes. The second job is where most real-world problems happen.
Once one price shortens, a stake is cut or a bet is voided, the maths changes. So execution comes down to controlling three things:
- Order: which leg goes on first
- Speed: how quickly the remaining legs follow
- Rounding: how you turn exact stakes into sensible amounts without pushing one outcome into a loss
For scale, AUOdds data shows 2,286 locks over the last 30 days across 9 Australian bookmakers. The typical lock was about 1.6%. That's a thin margin. On a $500 total outlay, 1.6% is about $8. A careless rounding choice or a two-minute delay can wipe that out. That's why the steps below matter more than the alert itself.
Before anything else, confirm that every bookmaker you use is licensed in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority explains how to check whether a gambling operator is legal. It's worth doing once for each account.
Also remember that online in-play betting isn't available to Australians. Every lock in this guide is a pre-match market, placed before the event starts.
Which leg should you place first?
The most useful of all arbitrage betting tips is simple: place the leg most likely to disappear first.
In most locks, one price is out of line with the rest of the market. Say four bookmakers have a team at 1.95 and one has it at 2.10. The 2.10 is the price doing the work, and it's the one most likely to be corrected, often quickly. The other side usually sits near the market average and tends to hold steadier.
Next, think about stake limits. Some accounts accept less than you request, or offer a reduced amount at the confirmation step. If that happens on your first leg, you simply scale the second leg down to match. If it happens on your second leg after the first is already on, you're left holding an unbalanced position.
The order that usually works best:
- First: the outlier price, or the account most likely to limit your stake
- Second: the price closest to the wider market, at a bookmaker that comfortably accepts your bets
- Last (three-way markets): the most stable leg, such as a draw price matched by several bookmakers
Sometimes the two tests point to different legs. In that case, prioritise the stake limit. A moved price can often be recovered with a small recalculation. A first leg accepted for only a fraction of your stake is harder to tidy up.
One more check before you click. Read the market name on both slips. A result after normal time and a result that includes extra time are different markets. A mismatch turns a lock into two separate bets.
How quickly should the second leg go on?
Fast. Seconds, not minutes.
A common suggestion in arbitrage betting strategy reddit threads is to wait a few minutes between legs, or to place the second bet later in the day, so your activity looks less like arbitrage. The trouble is that waiting doesn't remove risk. It just moves it.
While you wait, the price you still need can shorten. Meanwhile your first leg is fully exposed to the result. If the second price never comes back, you're holding an ordinary bet.
AUOdds data shows tracked prices are about 10 seconds old at any moment, across roughly 15,000 prices. Australian markets move often, especially close to the start. A lock showing 1.6% can be gone in under a minute.
To keep the gap between legs short:
- Stay logged in to every account you'll use, in separate browser tabs or on separate devices
- Keep each account funded above your usual stake, so a deposit never interrupts you
- Know where each market sits on each site, so you aren't searching menus mid-lock
- Enter both stakes, refresh the prices once, then confirm
- Skip locks within a few minutes of the start if you're not confident you can finish them
If you're worried about how your account activity looks, deal with that separately. Don't solve it by leaving yourself half-placed. An unhedged leg has an ordinary chance of losing, and on a thin margin one loss can undo many locks.
How do you round stakes without losing the lock?
Exact stakes from a calculator often come out as figures like $248.77 and $251.23. Rounded amounts are quicker to type and easier to track. The rule is to round in a way that keeps every outcome's return above your total outlay.
Worked example. A tennis match with two outcomes:
- Player A at 2.04 with Bookmaker 1
- Player B at 2.02 with Bookmaker 2
The implied probabilities are 1 ÷ 2.04 = 0.4902 and 1 ÷ 2.02 = 0.4950. Together they total 0.9852, so the lock is worth about 1.5%.
On a $500 outlay, the exact stakes are $248.77 on A and $251.23 on B. Either result returns about $507.48, roughly $7.48 ahead.
Now look at three ways to round:
- $249 / $251: returns $507.96 or $507.02. You're at least $7.02 ahead. Fine.
- $250 / $250: returns $510.00 or $505.00. Still positive both ways, but uneven.
- $260 / $240: returns $530.40 or $484.80. That's a $15.20 loss if B wins. The lock is gone.
Simple rounding rules:
- Round to the nearest dollar by default. Only round to $5 or $10 when the margin is comfortable.
- After rounding, multiply each stake by its odds. Check that both returns beat the total outlay.
- If one return falls short, add a dollar to that leg and recheck.
- Round before you place the first leg, not after. The first stake fixes the target return for the rest.
What should you do if a price moves or a stake is limited?
Even with good order and speed, you'll sometimes place the first leg and find the second price has moved. Decide in advance what you'll accept, so you aren't making it up under pressure.
Using the example above, say you've placed $249 on Player A at 2.04, which returns $507.96. Player B's price drops before you confirm.
- B now 1.97: the stake needed is $507.96 ÷ 1.97 = $257.85. Your total outlay is $506.85, so you're about $1.11 ahead whichever player wins. It's smaller, but still locked.
- B now 1.94: the stake needed is $261.84. Your total outlay is $510.84, so you'd be about $2.88 behind whichever player wins.
That second case is the key decision. Taking a small, known loss to close the position is usually better than leaving $249 riding on one player.
Before accepting the loss, check whether another licensed bookmaker still offers a usable price on Player B. Recalculate whenever:
- Any price changes before you confirm the slip
- A bookmaker accepts only part of your stake
- You're offered a revised price at the confirmation step
If your first leg is only partly accepted, scale the second leg to the return that's actually on. Say only $150 is accepted instead of $249. That returns $150 × 2.04 = $306, so $306 ÷ 2.02 = about $151.49 goes on Player B.
Set a personal floor, such as accepting up to a $5 loss to close a position, and write it down. Deciding the number beforehand stops one bad lock becoming a bigger problem.
How do you handle voids, and what goes on your checklist?
A void happens when a bookmaker cancels a bet and refunds the stake. It might follow an obvious pricing error, a change to the event, or settlement rules that differ between bookmakers. If one leg voids and the other stands, you're left with an ordinary single bet.
What to do:
- Read each bookmaker's settlement rules for the sport before betting, such as how a tennis retirement or a postponed match is treated, since rules can differ
- If a void notice arrives before the event, re-hedge at the best licensed price you can find, using the recalculation steps above
- If it arrives after the event, there's usually nothing to fix, so note it and move on
- Keep screenshots of every slip, so any query is simple to resolve
If you'd like an arbitrage betting strategy PDF, copy the list below into a document. Save or print it as a PDF and keep it beside your screen:
- Every bookmaker licensed in Australia? Market names identical?
- Accounts logged in and funded?
- Outlier or limit-prone leg first
- Second leg placed within seconds
- Rounded stakes checked, with every return above outlay
- Price moved? Recalculate. Partial stake? Scale down.
- Loss floor written down
- Screenshots saved and results logged in a spreadsheet
A final reminder: betting is for people aged 18 and over, and it should stay within your means. If it stops feeling that way, help is available. BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, lets you exclude yourself from licensed Australian online and phone betting providers. Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support around the clock.
Frequently asked questions
Should I wait a few minutes between placing the two legs?
No. Waiting is often suggested as a way to look less like an arbitrage bettor, but it leaves your first leg exposed while the second price can move. Prices in Australian pre-match markets change often, especially near the start. Place the second leg within seconds, and handle account concerns separately rather than by leaving a position half-placed.
Which leg of an arb should I place first?
Start with the leg most likely to change or be limited. That's usually the outlier price, the one well above what other bookmakers offer, or the account most likely to accept only part of your stake. If those point to different legs, prioritise the limit risk. A partial first leg is easy to match, but a partial second leg leaves you unbalanced.
Does rounding stakes ruin an arbitrage bet?
Not if you round carefully. Rounding to the nearest dollar usually costs only cents on a typical lock. Larger rounding, such as to $10, can push one outcome into a loss when margins are thin. After rounding, multiply each stake by its odds and confirm every return is higher than your total outlay before placing anything.
What happens if one leg of my arb is voided?
The voided stake is refunded and the other leg becomes an ordinary bet. If the void happens before the event, look for the best price at another licensed bookmaker and recalculate a new hedge. Reading each bookmaker's settlement rules beforehand, and keeping screenshots of every slip, reduces the chance of surprises and makes any queries easier to resolve.
Sources
- Check if a gambling operator is legal, Australian Communications and Media Authority
- BetStop: the National Self-Exclusion Register, Australian Communications and Media Authority
- BetStop, Australian Government
More guides
18+ only. Betting involves risk, and prices and limits can change before you place a bet. If gambling isn't fun any more, Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) is free and confidential, and BetStop lets you exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker.