Compare Odds Australia: How to Spot When the Best Prices Lock
- A normal odds comparison shows the highest price for each outcome but rarely tells you how those best prices relate to each other.
- Convert each best price to an implied probability (1 divided by the decimal odds) and add them up to get the combined market percentage.
- When the best prices from different bookmakers total under 100%, splitting your stake correctly locks in a return at the prices shown.
- Locks are usually small, around 2% of total outlay, and they close quickly.
- Real risks remain: prices move, stakes get limited, bets can be voided and mistakes happen.
If you compare odds Australia's licensed bookmakers post on the same match, you'll quickly see they rarely agree. One has the favourite at 1.85, another at 1.92, and the outsider shifts by a few cents from site to site. Most comparison pages stop there. They show you the highest price and leave it at that. This guide goes one step further. It explains how to turn a row of best prices into a single number, the combined market percentage, and why that number matters. When it falls below 100%, the best prices across different bookmakers can lock in a return at the prices shown. We'll walk through an odds board, the maths and the stakes, then cover the real risks between spotting a gap and getting set.
- What does a best odds comparison actually show you?
- How do you compare odds Australia-wide without missing the best price?
- When do the best prices add up to under 100%?
- What does a lock look like on a live odds board?
- What makes the best odds comparison site for spotting locks?
- What can go wrong between spotting a lock and getting set?
What does a best odds comparison actually show you?
A best odds comparison in Australia usually looks like a grid. Events run down the side, bookmakers run across the top, and the highest price for each outcome is highlighted. A board might cover Sportsbet, Neds, TAB, PointsBet and several others, all on the same pre-match market.
That's useful on its own. If you've already decided to back a team, taking 2.05 instead of 1.95 returns about 5% more on the same stake every time it wins. Over a season of bets, that adds up.
But a price grid answers only one question: where is the highest price for this outcome? It doesn't tell you how the best prices relate to each other. That's the gap most comparison pages leave open.
Each bookmaker builds a margin into its own market. Add up the implied chances of every outcome at a single bookmaker and you'll typically get more than 100%. The extra is the bookmaker's edge, often called the overround.
When you take the best price for each outcome from different bookmakers, though, you're mixing markets. Each bookmaker sets its prices independently, at different times, with different views and different customers to balance. Occasionally the best price on one side and the best price on the other are far enough apart that the combined total dips under 100%.
A plain grid won't flag that. You have to do the sum yourself, and you have to do it quickly, because the gap rarely sits still for long.
How do you compare odds Australia-wide without missing the best price?
To compare odds Australia-wide properly, you need a consistent routine. Prices change often, and a sloppy comparison can make a gap look bigger or smaller than it really is.
Use this checklist each time:
- Same event, same market. Check the teams, date, start time and market name match exactly. A head-to-head market and a line market are not interchangeable.
- Same settlement rules. Bookmakers can settle some situations differently. Read each bookmaker's rules for that market before treating the prices as equivalent.
- Decimal odds only. Decimal odds keep the maths simple. A price of 2.10 means a $10 stake returns $21, including your stake.
- Pre-match only. Online in-play sports betting isn't offered to Australians, so every comparison here is on pre-match markets.
- Licensed bookmakers only. Before opening an account, confirm the operator is legal using the ACMA's checker (ACMA-LEGAL).
- Note the time. Screenshot or jot down when you saw each price. A price that's a few minutes old may already be gone.
Organise your accounts before you need them. A gap is wasted if you still have to sign up, verify your identity and deposit before you can act. Funded, verified accounts with several licensed bookmakers let you move within seconds.
Finally, record every comparison you act on: event, prices, stakes, bookmakers and result. That record helps you recognise mistakes and spot patterns in your own process.
When do the best prices add up to under 100%?
The key tool is implied probability. For decimal odds, it's simply 1 divided by the price.
- Odds of 2.00 imply 50% (1 ÷ 2.00 = 0.50)
- Odds of 1.80 imply 55.6%
- Odds of 2.50 imply 40%
Add the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market and you get the market percentage. At a single bookmaker, a two-way market priced 1.90 and 1.90 adds up to 105.3% (52.6% + 52.6%). That 5.3% above 100 is the margin working against you.
Now take the best price for each outcome from different bookmakers. Suppose one has Team A at 2.10 and another has Team B at 1.98:
- 1 ÷ 2.10 = 47.62%
- 1 ÷ 1.98 = 50.51%
- Total: 98.13%
Because the total is under 100%, you can split a stake across both outcomes so the return is about the same whichever side wins, and that return is higher than the total staked. The size of the gap is roughly 100 ÷ 98.13, or about 1.9% on total outlay.
The same test works for markets with more outcomes. A three-way soccer market (home, draw, away) or a racing field simply has more numbers to add. The more outcomes there are, the more prices must line up at once, and the more chances one of them moves before you're set.
A total of exactly 100% means you break even at best. Anything above 100% is a normal market, and the best-price total simply tells you how thin the combined margin is.
What does a lock look like on a live odds board?
Here's an illustrative odds board for a pre-match AFL head-to-head market. The prices are made up for teaching, and the bookmakers are labelled A to E rather than named.
- Bookmaker A: Home 2.02, Away 1.85
- Bookmaker B: Home 2.10, Away 1.80
- Bookmaker C: Home 1.95, Away 1.92
- Bookmaker D: Home 2.00, Away 1.98
- Bookmaker E: Home 2.05, Away 1.88
Each bookmaker on its own is above 100%. Bookmaker B adds to 47.62% + 55.56% = 103.17%. Bookmaker D adds to 50.00% + 50.51% = 100.51%.
The best prices are Home 2.10 at B and Away 1.98 at D. Together they total 98.13%, so the board is showing a lock.
Worked example: a $500 total outlay
To make the return equal on both sides, stake each outcome in proportion to its implied probability:
- Home stake: $500 × 47.62 ÷ 98.13 = $242.65 at 2.10 with Bookmaker B
- Away stake: $500 × 50.51 ÷ 98.13 = $257.35 at 1.98 with Bookmaker D
If Home wins: $242.65 × 2.10 = $509.57 returned.
If Away wins: $257.35 × 1.98 = $509.55 returned.
Either way, about $509.55 comes back on $500 staked. That's a return of roughly $9.55, or 1.9%, at the prices shown.
Notice how ordinary that board looks. No single price stands out as an error. Bookmaker B is slightly generous on Home and Bookmaker D is slightly generous on Away. A standard comparison page would highlight both prices and never mention that, together, they form a lock.
What makes the best odds comparison site for spotting locks?
If you're searching for the best odds comparison site Australia has, judge it on what it does with the prices, not just how many it shows. People often type "which bets has the best odds" into a search bar, but for locks the better question is whether the best prices across bookmakers add up to less than 100%.
Look for:
- Licensed Australian bookmakers only. Stick to operators you can confirm are licensed (ACMA-LEGAL).
- Fresh prices. A quote that's a few minutes old may have moved. Check how often prices refresh.
- The combined market percentage. The site should do the sum for you, not just highlight the top price.
- Exact stakes. Splitting $500 by hand is manageable for two outcomes. It's slower and easier to get wrong across three or more.
- Clear notes on rule differences. Anything that flags settlement differences between bookmakers helps you avoid mismatched bets.
Doing this by hand is possible, but it's slow. AUOdds data shows about 15,000 prices tracked at any moment across 9 bookmakers, with prices typically about 10 seconds old. Over the last 30 days that produced 1,103 locks with a typical size of around 2.0%, and 606 of them appeared in the last 7 days.
Those numbers make a practical point. Locks appear regularly, but they're small. A 2% lock on a $500 outlay is around $10 at the prices shown. It's a steady, careful method rather than a windfall, and it only works if you can act before the gap closes.
What can go wrong between spotting a lock and getting set?
A lock only locks in a return at the prices shown if every bet is placed at those prices. Several things can get in the way:
- Prices move. You place the first bet, then the second price shortens before you can place it. You're left with a worse combined total or an unmatched bet.
- Stakes get limited. A bookmaker may accept less than the stake you asked for, which unbalances the split.
- Bets can be voided. A bookmaker may void a bet in some circumstances, or a market may settle differently from what you expected.
- Mistakes happen. Wrong market, wrong team, a typo in the stake. Double-check everything before you confirm.
A sensible habit is to place the outlier price first, since it's often the one most likely to be corrected. Decide in advance what you'll do if the second leg is gone: take the next best price at a small loss, or knowingly leave the bet open.
On tax, the ATO's ruling explains that winnings from recreational gambling are generally not assessable income, though individual circumstances differ (ATO-IT2655). If you're unsure how it applies to you, get professional advice.
Keep it in proportion. Betting is for adults 18+. Only stake what you can afford to lose, and set limits before you start. If betting stops feeling under control, BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, lets you exclude yourself from licensed Australian online and phone betting providers (BETSTOP, ACMA-BETSTOP). Gambling Help Online also offers free, confidential support at any time.
Frequently asked questions
How do I compare odds in Australia quickly?
Line up the same pre-match market across several licensed bookmakers, using decimal odds. Note the best price for each outcome, convert each to an implied probability by dividing 1 by the odds, then add them together. If the total is under 100%, the best prices form a lock. Have funded, verified accounts ready so you can act before prices change.
Why don't most odds comparison pages show locks?
Most comparison pages are built to show the single highest price for each outcome, which suits punters backing one side. They don't usually add the best prices together or calculate stakes. Spotting a lock needs that extra step, plus fresh prices, because the combined total can move above 100% again within moments as bookmakers adjust their markets.
How big is a typical lock?
Locks are usually small. AUOdds data puts the typical lock over the last 30 days at about 2.0% of total outlay. On a $500 outlay, that's roughly $10 at the prices shown. The return depends on getting every bet on at those prices, so price movement, stake limits or a voided bet can reduce it or turn it into a loss.
Do I need accounts with every bookmaker?
Not every one, but more accounts mean more chances to take the best price on each side. Only open accounts with licensed Australian bookmakers, which you can check through the ACMA. Keep each account verified and funded, and keep records of every bet so you can track your results and spot any mistakes in your process.
Sources
- Check if a gambling operator is legal, Australian Communications and Media Authority
- Taxation Ruling IT 2655: gambling and betting winnings, Australian Taxation Office
- BetStop, Australian Government
- BetStop: the National Self-Exclusion Register, Australian Communications and Media Authority
More guides
18+ only. Betting involves risk, and prices and limits can change before you place a bet. If gambling isn't fun any more, Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) is free and confidential, and BetStop lets you exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker.