How Much Can You Make Arbitrage Betting in Australia?

By the AUOdds team · Updated 2 Oct 2026 · 7 min read

How much can you make arbitrage betting in Australia? The honest answer is a small, known percentage of each stake, repeated as often as your time, capital and accounts allow. A lock happens when prices at different bookmakers line up so that backing every outcome locks in a return at the prices shown. That return is usually modest, and real-world friction trims it further. This guide walks through typical lock sizes using AUOdds data, a worked example with exact stakes, some illustrative monthly scenarios, and the costs and risks that decide what you actually keep. It also covers tax and how to keep your expectations, and your betting, under control.

How much does a single arbitrage lock usually return?

Most arbitrage returns are small on each bet. A lock appears when the best prices across different bookmakers add up to a combined implied probability below 100%. Backing every outcome in the right proportions then locks in a return at the prices shown. The gap is usually a few per cent of your total stake.

AUOdds data shows a typical lock size of 2.3% over the last 30 days, with 302 locks found across 9 bookmakers. On a $500 total outlay, a typical lock returns roughly $11 to $12 if everything goes to plan. On $100, it's about $2.30.

Some locks are bigger. They tend to appear briefly when one bookmaker is slow to adjust a price, and they often close within minutes. Treat a large margin as a reason to double-check, not to celebrate. An unusually wide gap can point to:

• A price that has just been corrected
• Markets with different rules, such as how a retirement or abandonment is settled
• A selection that has been scratched or withdrawn
• A misread market, such as a line or total that doesn't match

To check the margin yourself, add up 1 divided by each decimal price. If the total is under 1, the difference is your edge. For example:

• Prices of 2.08 and 2.02 give 0.4808 + 0.4950 = 0.9758
• Return on total stake = (1 ÷ 0.9758) − 1, or about 2.5%

So for each lock you should expect a small, known percentage of what you put in, as long as the prices hold and both bets stand.

What does a worked arbitrage example look like?

Take a pre-match tennis match with two outcomes. Bookmaker A offers 2.08 on Player 1 and Bookmaker B offers 2.02 on Player 2. You want to put $500 in total across both bets.

The formula for each stake is your total outlay multiplied by (1 ÷ price), divided by the combined total of 0.9758.

• Player 1 at 2.08: $500 × 0.4808 ÷ 0.9758 = $246.34
• Player 2 at 2.02: $500 × 0.4950 ÷ 0.9758 = $253.66

Now check the returns:

• If Player 1 wins: $246.34 × 2.08 = $512.39
• If Player 2 wins: $253.66 × 2.02 = $512.39

Either way you get back $512.39 on $500 staked, a return of $12.39 at the prices shown.

In practice, many people round to whole dollars. Staking $246 and $254 gives returns of $511.68 or $513.08, so the result lands between $11.68 and $13.08. That's still positive, but it shows how rounding moves the numbers. On a thin margin of 1% or less, rounding the wrong way can wipe out most of the return.

Two habits help here:

• Recalculate stakes from the exact prices you see on the bet slip, not the prices you saw a minute ago
• Round the larger stake so both outcomes stay above your total outlay

Our guide to the arbitrage betting calculator goes through the stake formula for three-outcome markets as well.

How much can you make arbitrage betting each month?

Monthly returns come down to four things: how many locks you actually take, how much you stake on each, the average margin, and how much goes wrong. Seeing a lock is not the same as getting both bets on.

Here are some illustrative scenarios, before any losses from price moves or mistakes:

• 10 locks a month at 2% on $300 each: about $60
• 20 locks a month at 2.3% on $500 each: about $230
• 40 locks a month at 2.3% on $1,000 each: about $920

These are arithmetic, not forecasts. Many people find their real figure sits well below the top scenario. Stakes get limited, they miss locks while at work, or a few errors eat into the month.

Capital matters more than people expect. To act quickly you need funds already sitting in several accounts. Covering 9 bookmakers with $500 each means $4,500 spread out. Money is also tied up until events settle, and withdrawals can take a few days. Your usable bankroll at any moment is often much smaller than your total.

Time is a real cost. Prices change constantly, so locks need fast, careful action. If you value your time, a $10 return that took 15 minutes of checking is a low hourly rate.

A sensible approach is to start small, record every lock in a spreadsheet, and work out your own average after a month or two. Your own numbers will tell you more than any estimate.

What reduces the return you actually keep?

Every arbitrage return assumes both bets go on at the prices shown and both are settled as expected. In practice, several things can go wrong.

Prices move. You place the first bet, and before you place the second, the other price drops. You're now exposed on one side. You can accept a smaller margin, find the price elsewhere, or in some cases end up with a small loss on the pair.

Stakes get limited. Bookmakers can restrict the amount you can stake on an account. If one leg is capped, the whole lock shrinks, because both stakes must stay in proportion.

Bets can be voided. A bookmaker may void a bet under its own rules, for example for an obvious price error or a change to the event. If one leg is voided and the other stands, you're no longer covered. Always read each bookmaker's rules on retirements, scratchings and abandonments before betting.

Mistakes happen. Common ones include:

• Backing the wrong selection or market
• Typing $2,540 instead of $254
• Mixing up a head-to-head market with a line market
• Forgetting that a market includes a draw

Timing is limited to pre-match. Online in-play sports betting isn't offered to Australians, so arbitrage here uses pre-match prices placed online before the event starts.

Finally, only use bookmakers licensed in Australia. ACMA lets you check whether a gambling operator is legal. Offshore sites aren't worth the risk to your funds or your protections.

Do you pay tax on arbitrage betting returns in Australia?

For most people, gambling winnings aren't treated as assessable income in Australia. The ATO explains that winnings from gambling are generally not taxed because they come from chance or leisure rather than a business.

There is an exception. The ATO's Taxation Ruling IT 2655 deals with when betting activity might amount to carrying on a business. Factors such as the scale of the activity, how systematic and organised it is, and whether it is run in a businesslike way can all be relevant. If your arbitrage activity grows large and structured, it's worth getting proper advice rather than assuming the general rule applies.

Good records help either way. Keep a simple log that includes:

• Date, event and market
• Bookmaker and price for each leg
• Stakes and returns
• Any voided or partially settled bets
• Deposits and withdrawals for each account

This log does two jobs. It shows your real average return per lock, which is the most honest answer to how much you're making. And it gives a registered tax agent the information they need if your situation ever needs reviewing.

This guide is general information only and not tax advice. Rules and individual circumstances vary, so speak to a qualified professional about your own position.

How do you set realistic expectations and stay in control?

Arbitrage works best when it's treated as a careful, repetitive process rather than a way to chase big numbers. Before you start, run through this checklist:

• Decide on a fixed bankroll you're comfortable having tied up in accounts
• Set a maximum stake per lock and stick to it
• Check the margin and recalculate stakes before every pair of bets
• Confirm both markets have the same rules and outcomes
• Place the leg most likely to move first
• Log every lock, including the ones that go wrong
• Review your average return after 30 days, not after one good day

When you use an alert service such as AUOdds, the stakes are calculated for you. But you're still the one placing each bet, checking each slip and managing your accounts. The careful habits above are what protect your return.

Keep your expectations grounded. A steady 2% here and there adds up only if you avoid costly errors and keep your accounts in order. If a month comes in below your estimate, that's normal, not a sign to stake more.

A quick reminder: betting is for adults 18+ only. Even with arbitrage, it can affect your finances, time and wellbeing. If betting stops feeling like something you control, BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, lets you exclude yourself from licensed Australian online and phone wagering services. Free, confidential support is available through Gambling Help Online, and the Department of Social Services lists further help.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

1. Crypto asset prizes and gambling winnings, Australian Taxation Office
2. Taxation Ruling IT 2655: gambling and betting winnings, Australian Taxation Office
3. Check if a gambling operator is legal, Australian Communications and Media Authority
4. BetStop: the National Self-Exclusion Register, Australian Communications and Media Authority
5. BetStop, Australian Government
6. Gambling, Department of Social Services

More guides

• Arbitrage Betting Calculator: How to Work Out Each Stake
• Best Arbitrage Betting Software Australia: What to Look For
• Is Arbitrage Betting Legal in Australia? (2026 Guide)
• Arbitrage Betting in Australia: How It Works (2026)

18+ only. Betting involves risk, and prices and limits can change before you place a bet. If gambling isn't fun any more, Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) is free and confidential, and BetStop lets you exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker.