Is Arbitrage Betting Profitable? Margins vs Real Costs
- A typical lock returns about 1.5% of turnover at the prices shown, so the useful measure is profit per dollar staked, not profit per bet.
- Rounding stakes, missed or moved legs and voided bets each trim that thin margin, and a single void can wipe out a month of small locks.
- Stake limits shrink your turnover and subscription fees act as a fixed cost, so both need to be measured against what you actually place.
- Track your captured margin (net result divided by turnover) every month and compare it with the margins you were alerted to.
- Arbing is still real-money betting with real risks, so only use licensed Australian bookmakers and keep it within limits you can afford.
Is arbitrage betting profitable once you count the costs and the things that go wrong? On paper, a lock locks in a return at the prices shown, usually a small one. In practice, that margin gets trimmed by rounded stakes, missed legs, voided bets, limited accounts and whatever you pay for tools. This guide takes a profit-per-turnover view. It starts with what a typical lock returns per dollar staked, then subtracts each cost honestly. It won't tell you what you'll earn, because nobody can. It will show you how to check whether the margins you actually capture are bigger than the costs you actually carry. All examples use decimal odds and licensed Australian bookmakers.
Is arbitrage betting profitable in theory?
Is arbitrage betting profitable in theory? Yes, in a narrow sense. Sometimes two or more licensed bookmakers price the same market differently enough that you can stake each outcome to get the same return whichever way it lands. When that happens, the return is higher than your total outlay.
The catch is size. Locks are thin. AUOdds data for the last 30 days shows 2,773 locks across 9 bookmakers, with a typical lock of around 1.5%. In the last seven days there were 1,344. That's plenty of opportunities, but each one returns roughly $1.50 for every $100 you put through.
That's why the useful number isn't profit per bet. It's profit per dollar of turnover. Turnover is the total you stake across all legs. If you put $10,000 through locks averaging 1.5%, the paper return is about $150. Every cost in the rest of this guide comes out of that $150.
Thinking this way helps in three ways:
- It stops one big-looking lock from distorting your view. A 4% lock capped at a $50 stake is worth less than a 1.2% lock you can place at $600.
- It makes costs comparable. A monthly fee, a $3 rounding loss and an $11 missed leg all become percentages of turnover.
- It shows your break-even point. If your costs add up to more than your average captured margin, you're going backwards no matter how many alerts you see.
Treat the 1.5% figure as a ceiling, not a forecast. Real results land below it, and the size of that gap decides the answer for you.
What does a 1.5% lock look like in dollars?
Here's a short worked example on a two-way market, such as a head-to-head with no draw.
- Bookmaker A offers Team 1 at 2.08
- Bookmaker B offers Team 2 at 1.98
First, add the implied probabilities. 1 ÷ 2.08 = 0.4808 and 1 ÷ 1.98 = 0.5051, which together come to 0.9859. Any total under 1 is a lock. Here the margin is about 1.44%.
To spread $500 so both outcomes pay the same:
- Stake on Team 1: $500 × 0.4808 ÷ 0.9859 = $243.84, returning $507.19
- Stake on Team 2: $500 × 0.5051 ÷ 0.9859 = $256.16, returning $507.20
Whichever team wins, you collect about $507.19 for $500 staked. That's roughly $7.19 at the prices shown.
Notice how little room that leaves. Seven dollars is easy to give back through one small error, and the next sections show exactly how.
The example also rests on four assumptions:
- Both prices are still there when you click.
- Both bookmakers accept the full stake.
- Both bets settle under the same rules.
- You enter the right amounts into the right markets.
Any of those can fail. So the honest answer to whether arbing pays depends on how often they fail for you, and what each failure costs. For more variations, our arbitrage betting example guide works through five different Australian markets with every stake calculated.
How much does rounding your stakes cost?
Exact stakes like $243.84 can look unusual on a bet slip, so many people round to the nearest $5 or $10. Rounding is sensible, but it isn't free.
Take the same lock and round the stakes to $245 and $255:
- Team 1 wins: $245 × 2.08 = $509.60, profit $9.60
- Team 2 wins: $255 × 1.98 = $504.90, profit $4.90
The return is no longer equal. You've swapped a flat $7.19 for a range of $4.90 to $9.60. Across many bets this roughly evens out, but it adds variance to every result.
On thinner locks, rounding can do real damage. Suppose a lock is only 0.8% on a $300 total, returning about $302.40. Shifting $10 from one leg at around 2.00 to the other cuts one outcome's return by about $20, leaving it at roughly $282. That outcome now loses money, so you're no longer holding a lock at all.
A practical rounding checklist:
- Check both outcomes after rounding. If either drops below your total outlay, adjust or skip.
- On thin locks, round to the nearest $1 or $5, not $10 or $50.
- Set a personal minimum margin, such as 1%, and don't round below it.
- Record the planned exact stakes next to what you actually placed, so you can measure the real cost over a month.
In profit-per-turnover terms, careful rounding usually costs a small fraction of a percent. Careless rounding can cost the whole lock.
What happens when a leg is missed or voided?
Missed legs and voids are the two failures most likely to turn a small lock into a real loss.
Missed or moved legs. Prices change constantly. AUOdds alerts show prices that are about 10 seconds old, but by the time you've logged in and found the market, the second price may have shortened.
Say you've placed $243.84 on Team 1 at 2.08, and Team 2 has dropped from 1.98 to 1.90. To match the $507.19 return, you'd now need $266.94 on Team 2. Your total outlay becomes $510.78 for a $507.19 return, a loss of about $3.59.
So one slipped price didn't just remove the $7.19 profit. It cost another $3.59 on top, a swing of nearly $11 on $500. If the price moves further, or a bookmaker accepts only part of your stake, the loss grows. Leaving the first leg uncovered and hoping the price comes back turns a lock into an ordinary bet.
Voids. Each bookmaker settles bets under its own rules. If one leg is voided, for example after an obvious pricing error or because a market is settled differently at each bookmaker, that stake comes back. The other leg then stands alone, and if it loses you lose that whole stake.
Ways to reduce both problems:
- Place the leg most likely to move or be limited first, usually the outlier price.
- Read each bookmaker's rules for that market type before you bet.
- Avoid markets where the two bookmakers define the result differently.
- Keep funds deposited so you're not waiting on transfers.
Our guide to placing both legs safely covers order and timing in more detail.
Arbitrage betting: how much can you make after limits and fees?
People who search 'arbitrage betting how much can you make' usually find a monthly dollar figure. A more useful answer is a formula: captured margin × the turnover you can actually place, minus fixed costs. Limits and fees attack the last two parts.
Limits. Accounts that consistently take outlier prices often have their maximum stakes reduced. Once a bookmaker caps you at, say, $50 a bet, a 1.5% lock on that leg returns well under a dollar, and the matching leg has to shrink too. Your percentage stays the same, but your turnover falls, and so do the dollars. Our guide on how to avoid getting banned explains what affects this and what doesn't.
Membership and tool costs. Treat any subscription as a fixed cost and divide it by turnover. As a hypothetical, a $60 monthly fee needs $4,000 of turnover at 1.5% just to cover itself. At $10,000 of turnover, it takes 0.6 percentage points off your margin. At $2,000, it costs more than the locks return.
Now put it together. Imagine a month with $10,000 of turnover:
- Paper return at 1.5%: $150
- Rounding drag of 0.1%: -$10
- Two missed legs at about $11 each: -$22
- Hypothetical $60 fee: -$60
- Result before any voids: $58
Now add one void where the standing $250 leg loses. That single event turns the month into a $192 loss.
These figures are illustrative, not a forecast. For realistic ranges by bankroll, see our guide How Much Can You Make Arbitrage Betting in Australia?
So is arb betting worth it for you?
Is arb betting worth it? That depends less on how many locks exist and more on how much your own process loses along the way. Our Is Arbitrage Betting Worth It? guide covers the time, effort and day-to-day side. Here's a numbers-only checklist.
- Track turnover, not wins. Log every lock: planned margin, stakes placed and actual result.
- Calculate captured margin monthly. Divide your net result by turnover, then compare it with the typical 1.5%.
- Count every cost. Include rounding, missed legs, voids, fees and any transfer charges.
- Watch your limits. If maximum stakes keep falling, your turnover ceiling falls with them.
- Set a stop rule. If your captured margin is negative for two months running, pause and work out why.
Only use licensed Australian bookmakers. You can check whether an operator is legal through ACMA [ACMA-LEGAL].
On tax, the ATO's long-standing position is that gambling winnings are generally not assessable income for people who aren't carrying on a betting business [ATO-IT2655]. Our tax guide explains the edge cases, and anyone unsure should get professional advice.
Arbing is still betting with real money, and you can lose stakes when things go wrong. You must be 18+ to bet. If betting stops feeling under control, BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, lets you exclude yourself from licensed online and phone betting providers [ACMA-BETSTOP]. Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support.
Frequently asked questions
Is arbitrage betting profitable for most people?
It can be, but only if the margin you actually capture beats your costs. Typical locks return around 1.5% of turnover at the prices shown. Rounding, missed legs, voided bets, stake limits and fees all come out of that. Track your net result divided by turnover each month. That number, not the alerts you receive, tells you whether it's working for you.
What is a typical arbitrage margin in Australia?
Recent data across nine licensed Australian bookmakers puts the typical lock at about 1.5%, which is roughly $1.50 back for every $100 staked across all legs. Some locks are bigger, but they often come with low stake limits or prices that move quickly. Treat 1.5% as a ceiling for planning rather than a figure you'll reliably achieve.
Can one bad bet wipe out a month of locks?
Yes. If one leg is voided and the other leg loses, you lose that full stake. A $250 loss can be bigger than a whole month of small locks on modest turnover. That's why checking each bookmaker's settlement rules and avoiding markets where results are defined differently matters as much as finding good prices.
Do I pay tax on arbitrage betting returns?
The ATO's general position is that gambling winnings aren't assessable income for people who aren't carrying on a betting business. Whether arbing could count as a business depends on your circumstances, such as how organised, regular and large-scale your activity is. Read our arbitrage betting and taxes guide, and get professional advice if you're unsure.
Sources
- Check if a gambling operator is legal, Australian Communications and Media Authority
- Taxation Ruling IT 2655: gambling and betting winnings, Australian Taxation Office
- BetStop: the National Self-Exclusion Register, Australian Communications and Media Authority
More guides
18+ only. Betting involves risk, and prices and limits can change before you place a bet. If gambling isn't fun any more, Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) is free and confidential, and BetStop lets you exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker.