What Is Arbitrage Betting in AFL? Draw Rules, Stakes and a Worked A$ Example

By the AUOdds team · Updated 6 Nov 2026 · 7 min read

Key takeaways

An AFL arb backs both teams at two licensed Australian bookmakers so the return beats the outlay at the prices shown.
A 2-way head-to-head market has no draw outcome, so each bookmaker settles a tied game under its own rules.
If both books settle a draw the same way the lock usually holds, but mismatched rules can turn a small lock into a loss.
Mixing a 2-way market with a 3-way market that prices the draw is the costliest settlement error.
Read and record each book's AFL draw rule before you bet, and remember prices, limits and voids can still go against you.

What is arbitrage betting in AFL? It's backing both teams in a head-to-head market at two different licensed Australian bookmakers, at prices high enough that your combined return is greater than your total outlay whichever side wins. That's a lock, and it locks in a return at the prices shown. AFL adds one complication that soccer-based guides skip: the draw. A 2-way market has no draw outcome, so each bookmaker decides how to settle a tied game. If your two books settle it differently, your lock can become a small loss. This guide covers the stake maths, five draw scenarios with A$ figures, and a checklist for reading each book's rules before you bet.

In this guide

What is arbitrage betting in AFL, and how does a 2-way lock work?
How does an arbitrage betting calculator 2 way split the stakes?
What happens to the lock if an AFL game ends in a draw?
Which arbitrage betting markets in AFL carry draw or push risk?
How should you check each bookmaker's draw rules before betting?
What other risks can still break an AFL lock?

What is arbitrage betting in AFL, and how does a 2-way lock work?

In Australia, 'football' often means AFL rather than soccer, so the question 'what is arbitrage betting in football' usually has two answers. Soccer head-to-head markets are typically 3-way: home, draw, away. AFL head-to-head markets are often offered as 2-way: one team or the other.

That difference matters. In a 3-way market the draw is its own priced outcome, and you'd cover it with a third bet. In a 2-way AFL market there's nothing to cover, because the draw isn't on the menu. How a tie is settled is left to each bookmaker's rules.

A 2-way lock works like this:

Bookmaker 1 prices Team A higher than the rest of the market.
Bookmaker 2 prices Team B higher than the rest.
You add the implied probabilities (1 divided by each price). If the total is under 1, the gap is your margin.
You split your stake so each side returns roughly the same amount.

Locks are usually small. Across all the markets tracked, AUOdds data shows 4,014 locks in the last 30 days, with a typical lock of about 1.4%, drawn from roughly 15,000 prices across 9 bookmakers. Margins that thin leave little room for a settlement surprise, which is why the draw deserves its own plan.

Everything here is pre-match. Online in-play sports betting isn't offered to Australians, so every bet in this guide is placed before the first bounce, and only with licensed Australian bookmakers. You can confirm an operator is legal using the ACMA's 'Check if a gambling operator is legal' page.

How does an arbitrage betting calculator 2 way split the stakes?

An arbitrage betting calculator 2 way runs three sums. You can do them by hand to check any tool.

Step 1: implied probability. Divide 1 by each decimal price.

Step 2: total. Add them. Under 1.00 means a lock. Your return on outlay is 1 divided by the total, minus 1.

Step 3: stakes. Each stake equals your total outlay multiplied by that side's implied probability, divided by the total.

Worked example with an A$1,000 outlay:

Team A at 2.10 with Bookmaker 1: 1 ÷ 2.10 = 0.4762
Team B at 1.95 with Bookmaker 2: 1 ÷ 1.95 = 0.5128
Total: 0.9890, so the return is 1 ÷ 0.9890 = 1.0111, or about 1.1%

Stakes:

Team A: A$1,000 × 0.4762 ÷ 0.9890 = A$481.48
Team B: A$1,000 × 0.5128 ÷ 0.9890 = A$518.52

Returns:

Team A wins: A$481.48 × 2.10 = A$1,011.11
Team B wins: A$518.52 × 1.95 = A$1,011.11

That's A$11.11 on A$1,000 at the prices shown. In practice you'll round. Stakes of A$481 and A$519 return A$1,010.10 or A$1,012.05, still ahead either way. Rounding to the nearest dollar is usually fine. Rounding to the nearest A$50 on a 1% lock can push one side underwater.

Notice what the calculator doesn't ask: what happens on a draw. Most 2-way tools assume exactly two outcomes. AFL has a third, even if it's rare, and the calculator can't see it. That part is your job.

What happens to the lock if an AFL game ends in a draw?

AFL draws are uncommon, but they happen. In a 2-way market, each bookmaker settles them under its own rules. Rather than guess at any particular book's policy, here are the settlement methods you'll commonly see described, and what each does to the A$1,000 lock above.

Under a dead-heat approach, half the stake is paid at full odds and the other half is lost. Under a refund approach, the stake is returned.

Scenario 1: both books apply dead heat.

Book 1: A$240.74 × 2.10 = A$505.55
Book 2: A$259.26 × 1.95 = A$505.56
Total back: A$1,011.11. The lock holds.

Scenario 2: both books refund. A$1,000 back. No gain, no loss.

Scenario 3: Book 1 refunds, Book 2 applies dead heat. A$481.48 + A$505.56 = A$987.04, a loss of A$12.96.

Scenario 4: Book 1 applies dead heat, Book 2 refunds. A$505.55 + A$518.52 = A$1,024.07, a gain of A$24.07.

Scenario 5: one market is actually 3-way. If Book 2's market lists the draw as its own outcome, a draw means your Team B bet simply loses. If Book 1 dead-heats, you get A$505.55 back from A$1,000. If Book 1 refunds, you get A$481.48 back.

The lesson is that matching rules matter more than the size of the lock. A mismatch can cost more than the lock was worth, and pairing a 2-way market with a 3-way one is the most expensive error of all.

Which arbitrage betting markets in AFL carry draw or push risk?

Arbitrage betting markets in AFL go beyond head-to-head, and each has its own version of the draw problem.

Head-to-head, 2-way: the draw is settled by each book's rules. Check both before betting.
Head-to-head, 3-way: the draw is priced, often at long odds. A full lock needs three bets.
Line (handicap): half-point lines such as +6.5 can't land exactly. Whole-number lines can, so check how a push settles.
Totals: the same logic. Over/under 165.5 can't land on the number; 165 can.
Player markets: check what happens if a named player doesn't take the field or is subbed out early.

A 3-way lock removes the settlement question because every result is covered. The catch is that adding a third outcome usually pushes the total implied probability over 1. Using the earlier prices with a draw at 51.00 gives 0.4762 + 0.0196 + 0.5128 = 1.0086, which isn't a lock.

It can line up when the team prices are a little longer. Say Team A is 2.15, the draw is 51.00 and Team B is 2.00 across three books. The total is 0.4651 + 0.0196 + 0.5000 = 0.9847, about a 1.55% return. On A$1,000:

Team A: A$472.33, returning A$1,015.51
Draw: A$19.91, returning A$1,015.41
Team B: A$507.77, returning A$1,015.54

The draw stake is small, but it buys certainty about settlement. For lines and totals, half-point numbers do the same job without a third bet.

How should you check each bookmaker's draw rules before betting?

Before staking an AFL head-to-head lock, read the rules for both books. It takes a few minutes the first time and seconds after that if you keep notes.

Checklist:

2-way or 3-way? Check the market name and whether a draw price is displayed alongside the two teams.
Draw settlement. Does the book apply dead-heat rules, refund stakes, or something else?
Finals. Does the market settle on the full result including any extra time played, or on a different basis? Read it rather than assume.
Where the rule lives. Is it in a general sports section or a specific AFL section? The specific rule usually takes priority, so read both.
Date your notes. Record the rule and the date you read it, because terms can be updated.

Then decide:

Rules match (both dead heat or both refund): the lock behaves cleanly on a draw.
Rules differ: you're accepting a small swing either way, like Scenarios 3 and 4. On a 1.1% lock, the downside case costs more than the lock earns, so many punters skip it.
One side is 3-way: skip, or add the draw as a third leg and recalculate.

A simple habit helps: keep a one-line table for each bookmaker you use, showing its AFL head-to-head draw rule in your own words, the source page and the date checked. Review it at the start of each season. When a lock appears, you'll know within seconds whether the pair is safe to use or needs a third leg.

What other risks can still break an AFL lock?

Draw rules are the AFL-specific trap, but the usual arbitrage risks still apply.

Prices move. AUOdds prices are about 10 seconds old, yet a price can still shift between your first and second bet. Place the leg most likely to move or be limited first.
Stakes get limited. A bookmaker may accept only part of your stake, leaving you unbalanced. Recalculate the other leg straight away.
Bets can be voided. Obvious pricing errors can be cancelled under a book's rules, leaving the other leg exposed.
Mistakes happen. Backing the line instead of head-to-head, the wrong team or the wrong stake can undo a lock. Double-check the bet slip before confirming.

Tax is another point to understand. The ATO's Taxation Ruling IT 2655 and its page on gambling winnings explain how the ATO views betting income. If you're unsure how it applies to you, speak to a registered tax agent.

Keep a simple log: date, match, books, prices, stakes, settlement and result. Over a season it shows whether draws, limits or errors are eating into your returns, and which bookmaker pairs work best for you.

A responsible-gambling reminder: betting is for adults 18 and over. Arbitrage still involves real money and real risk. If betting stops feeling under control, BetStop, the National Self-Exclusion Register, lets you exclude yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone bookmakers. Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support at any hour, and the Department of Social Services has further information on gambling support.

Frequently asked questions

Can an AFL game end in a draw?

Yes. AFL matches can finish with scores level, though it doesn't happen often. That's why the settlement rules on a 2-way head-to-head market matter. Each bookmaker decides how a tied result is settled, so read the rules at both books before you place either leg, and check how finals are handled too.

Is a 3-way AFL market better for arbitrage than a 2-way market?

A 3-way market covers the draw directly, so there's no settlement question if every outcome is backed. The trade-off is that adding a draw price usually makes the total implied probability higher, so genuine 3-way locks are rarer. Never pair a 2-way leg with a 3-way leg unless you also cover the draw.

Does an arbitrage betting calculator handle AFL draws?

Most 2-way calculators assume only two outcomes and ignore the draw entirely. They'll split your stakes correctly for a win by either team, but they can't tell you how each bookmaker settles a tie. You need to check that yourself, or switch to a 3-way calculation that includes a draw price.

What is arbitrage betting in football compared with AFL?

The principle is the same: back every outcome across different bookmakers so the return beats your outlay at the prices shown. Soccer head-to-head is usually 3-way with a priced draw. AFL head-to-head is often 2-way, so the draw is handled by each book's rules rather than by a separate bet.

Sources

Check if a gambling operator is legal, Australian Communications and Media Authority
Taxation Ruling IT 2655: gambling and betting winnings, Australian Taxation Office
Crypto asset prizes and gambling winnings, Australian Taxation Office
BetStop: the National Self-Exclusion Register, Australian Communications and Media Authority
BetStop, Australian Government
Gambling, Department of Social Services

More guides

18+ only. Betting involves risk, and prices and limits can change before you place a bet. If gambling isn't fun any more, Gambling Help Online (1800 858 858) is free and confidential, and BetStop lets you exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker.